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Matchup preview

Navy vs Army

Navy meet Army in Week 15. The model favors Army by 2.5. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
44%
56%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds
Consensus line · 1 book
Spread
NAVY -2.5
Total (O/U)
37.5
Favorite
NAVY
Moneyline win probability (implied from the spread)
Navy
56%
Army
44%

Real consensus line across 1 sportsbook. Spread and total are the current market number; the win probabilities are implied from the spread.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#76SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#68
#68FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#76
1575EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1589
-Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
NavyArmysolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 6-6
Navy have won the last 2
20162025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
17-16
Navy
neutral site
2024
31-13
Navy
neutral site
2023
17-11
Army
neutral site
2022
20-17
Army
neutral site
2021
17-13
Navy
at Army
2020
15-0
Army
neutral site
2019
31-7
Navy
neutral site
2018
17-10
Army
neutral site
2017
14-13
Army
neutral site
2016
21-17
Army
neutral site
2015
21-17
Navy
neutral site
2014
17-10
Navy
neutral site
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Navy vs Army game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Navy vs Army market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Navy and Army play?

Week 15 of 2026, on Dec 12, 2026 at a neutral site.

Who is favored?

The model projects Army by 2.5 (56% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 6-6 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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