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Matchup preview

Houston vs West Virginia

Houston visit West Virginia in Week 12. The model favors Houston by 11.9. Win probability, the tale of the tape, and the all-time series, all from real data.

Win probability
76%
24%

Model win probability from SP+ ratings + home-field edge.

Matchup odds price history
The market to win this game · daily prices, colored by the favorite
Houston54%+4 ptsvsWest Virginia46%-4 pts
0%25%50%75%100%Houston favoredWest Virginia favoredNov 8Nov 8

Real daily prices from the market to win this game, shown as Houston's win price; West Virginia's is 100 minus it (the same market's other side). Above the 50% line Houston is favored, below it West Virginia is, and each segment takes the favored team's color. Polymarket publishes a daily close, drawn as a line. As of Nov 8.

Tale of the tape
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
#25SP+SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.#73
#50FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.#84
1512EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1291
0.7%Title oddsDe-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.-
HoustonWest Virginiasolid = better, faded = trailing
What these metrics mean
SP+. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Title odds. De-vigged consensus probability to win the national title, averaged across the prediction markets we track.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosive. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Success allowed. How often the defense allows an on-schedule play (enough yards for the down). Lower is better.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards allowed. Total yards allowed per game. Lower is better.
Efficiency profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
Recent series
Series even 1-1
20232025
Head to head
Every meeting in our records
2025
45-35
West Virginia
at Houston
2023
41-39
Houston
at Houston
More Week 12 matchups
Model previews for the rest of the slate
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do I trade the Houston vs West Virginia game?

Kalshi lists winner markets for college football games. Sign up with code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500), open the Houston vs West Virginia market when it posts, and buy YES on your side; the price in cents equals the market's implied win probability. You can sell before kickoff or settlement at the current price.

When do Houston and West Virginia play?

Week 12 of 2026, on Nov 21, 2026 at West Virginia.

Who is favored?

The model projects Houston by 11.9 (76% win probability), from SP+ ratings.

What is the all-time series?

Series even 1-1 over the meetings in our records.

Full schedule → · Both teams' playoff odds, from 10,000 simulations →

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